Should I buy or keep renting in Ontario?
I never saw the Rent Vs Own argument as an intelligent one to be quite frank.
The rent people say they don't need to buy anything. Why waste money on a mortgage when you can just index and chill. The buy people are honestly more fanatical than the rent people (don't come for me haha).
But both sides are committing one major sin that reality itself is constantly begging them to repent from.
Let's look at the last 30 years to see what reality is saying.
Renters come close.
Investing $1,000 a month in the S&P every month over the last 30 years would've made you about $2,262,000.
$360,000 contributed. The rest is compounding at the S&P's long-run 10% annual average.
But you had to live somewhere, right? So you spent about $900,000 in rent over that same time period.
GTA 3-bed starting at ~$900/month in 1996, escalating 4% a year. Source: CMHC historical rent data.
Buyers, your turn.
A home bought 30 years ago in the GTA for $250,000 grew about 5% in value every year and is now worth about $1,050,000.
Source: TRREB / RE/MAX Canada 25-Year GTA Market Report.
You saved the $900,000 that the renters lost. But you lost the $2,262,000 that the renters gained.
Both of you guys, listen closely.
The third set of guys that bought a home AND invested $1,000 a month now have $2,262,000 in the S&P and a property valued at $1,050,000 — that's $3,312,000 total.
They didn't spend time waiting for the best time to buy or invest, because time itself was the most valuable thing in the entire equation.
And they didn't spend it arguing which path was better when the very rules of investing and financial prudence demanded they try their best to do both.
I've made things easy for you if you're still skeptical.
Here's a tool that will help you see the trade-off with your own numbers.
The tool uses today's mortgage rates from the Bank of Canada, Ontario rent escalation data, and long-run S&P returns. Updated hourly.
Not a replacement for a meeting with a mortgage agent or financial planner — but a darn good estimate.
Run the tool →Or give your AI tool this link to run it for you: ayomac.com/api/ai/tools/timing
People also ask
What about property tax, maintenance, and insurance on the buyer's side?
Legitimate cost. Rough rule for Ontario: 1% of home value per year for property tax, another 1 to 2% for maintenance and insurance combined. On a $250,000 GTA home in 1996, that was about $6,000 a year in year one, escalating with inflation. Even after subtracting 30 years of those costs, the $1.05 million home value still comes out ahead of the $900,000 in rent that renters paid — because rent went up too.
What if I can't afford both a mortgage and to invest $1,000 a month?
Then start with whichever gets you moving. The point isn't $1,000 a month exactly — it's the direction. $200 a month invested for 30 years at the same 10% S&P return grows to roughly $452,000. Any consistent contribution beats waiting for the perfect time to start.
What if the S&P crashes right before I retire?
Then diversification saved you. The people who retired in 2008 with only stocks were severely impacted — the S&P dropped 38% in that crash. The people who had a paid-off house AND some stocks slept fine. That's the whole argument for covering both bases: you get to weather either kind of crisis without needing to sell at the worst time.
What if home prices don't keep growing 5% a year for the next 30?
Even at a conservative 3% per year (a floor consistent with long-run inflation), a $500,000 home today grows to about $1.21 million in 30 years. And by then the mortgage is paid off — the whole amount is yours. The buyer's return is compounding on TWO things at once: the price of the house AND the shrinking mortgage balance.
Should I max out my TFSA and RRSP before I invest in a taxable account?
Yes. TFSA first for tax-free compounding. RRSP next if your income is high enough to use the deduction meaningfully. Taxable comes after both are full. The $2.26 million S&P number above assumes the money sits in a tax shelter — outside a shelter, taxes on dividends and eventual capital gains take a real bite.
What if I don't have the down payment yet?
Start with the "Am I ready to buy a house in Ontario" question first — that's the pre-question. It walks through the three numbers that decide whether a mortgage is realistic on your income and savings today. The link is right below in the Related section.
Further reading — the 30-year record
Summary of the three paths above plus the assumptions each number comes from. Also useful if you want to hand these to an AI assistant to project your own scenario.
Rent vs buy vs both — where you end up after 30 years
| Path | Assets after 30 years | Rent paid over 30 years | Total end position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renter (invests $1,000/month in S&P) | $2,262,000 in S&P | $900,000 | $2,262,000 (still paying rent) |
| Buyer (mortgage only, no investing) | $1,050,000 home | $0 | $1,050,000 (mortgage-free) |
| Both (buys AND invests $1,000/month) | $1,050,000 home + $2,262,000 in S&P | $0 | $3,312,000 (mortgage-free) |
Sources: TRREB / RE/MAX Canada 25-Year GTA Market Report + S&P 500 historical returns + CMHC historical rent data.
What long-run rates do these numbers assume?
| Metric | Value used | Source |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 annual return (nominal) | 10.0% | Long-run 30-year average |
| GTA home appreciation (annual) | ~5% | TRREB 1996-2026 ($250K → $1.05M) |
| GTA starting rent (1996, 3-bed) | $900/month | CMHC |
| Historical rent escalation | 4% per year | CMHC 30-year historical |
| Monthly S&P contribution | $1,000 | Assumed |
| Starting home price (1996) | $250,000 | TRREB GTA avg |
Investment returns assume TFSA / RRSP tax shelter — outside a shelter, dividend and capital gains taxes reduce the net.
Not sure you're ready to buy yet? Am I ready to buy a house in Ontario walks through the three numbers that decide it. Or if you want to see what a house actually costs — monthly and at closing — How much does a house really cost in Ontario walks through that.
Keep reading
Other guides worth reading
Am I ready to buy a house in Ontario?
The three-question readiness test.
ReadHow much does a house really cost in Ontario?
Closing, carry, and the hidden costs.
ReadHow does buying a brand new home in Ontario actually work?
The stages, the money, the moving parts.
ReadHow do I buy a home as a newcomer to Canada?
Two paths — foreign credit vs building here.
ReadShould I invest in real estate in Ontario?
The 30-year endgame math.
ReadIf this changes how you see things — message READY on WhatsApp.